Death of Abdul Fatah Younis
General Abdul Fatah Younis, (one of the powerful characters supporting the National Transitional Council), was assassinated on 28th July (9 days after the workshop was held).
Before the workshop the participants were briefed on the General and his unpopularity. This is why we decided his presence as the NTC's general was a dilemma for the people of Libya. The arrest removed the card from the game and permanently eliminated that dilemma. His card was out of play before he was assassinated.
“The workshop does not predict what will happen but it does paraphrase”
Although the assassination was not directly forecast at the workshop, what was forecast was the power struggle within the NTC that led to the arrest of General Younis that occurred just beforehand. And the fact that that power struggle would have clear winners and losers. Before his assassination Gen Younis had already lost the power struggle. In fact in the workshop it was general Younis’ rival Khalifa Haftar who lost out, rather than Younis. We got the winner wrong, but the basic background and the fact there would be a winner right.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Fatah_Younis (wiki article)
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Abdul_Fatah_Younis&oldid=442127622 (version of Wiki article when I wrote this)
See forecast on my Wikipedia page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:Mike_Young/Sandbox13&action=history
(click on the date of the article revision14:43 21st July 2011)
News articles on his assassination
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14336122
Decision Workshops